Delhi elections 2025 are now in their final phase and this Delhi election has become very interesting across the country. People’s eyes are fixed on the leadership of former Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and Prime Minister Narendra Modi this time too.
Arvind Kejriwal, who sat on the Chief Minister’s chair by winning three consecutive elections, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi may have performed well in other parts of the country, but in the Delhi Assembly Election, the party has not been able to cross the double digit mark out of 70 seats for two consecutive elections.
Kejriwal & AAP is Facing Anti-Incumbency In Delhi Election:
Kejriwal & AAP is facing anti-incumbency on many issues after almost 12 years, which can affect the direction of the Delhi election.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Aam Aadmi Party and the Congress contested together, but in the Delhi elections, both the parties are contesting separately.
In this situation, the question becomes important whether this conflict between the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Congress will prove beneficial for Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in this Delhi election?
Apart from this, the presence of Asaduddin Owaisi’s party, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) in Muslim dominated seats can also affect the Delhi election results.
Now it has to be seen how much impact these aspects have on the Delhi election results and whether BJP is able to capitalize on this opportunity.
Will women voters decide the government once again like in Maharashtra assembly elections?
In the Maharashtra assembly elections held in November last year, the alliance of BJP, Shiv Sena (Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar) got a spectacular victory.
The ‘Ladki Bahin’ scheme started in June (2024) was also considered a big reason for this victory.
This is the reason why Congress, BJP or Aam Aadmi Party, all have tried their best to woo women in Delhi election.
Now it has to be seen whose promises women trust more.
On the women vote bank, political analysts say, “Women are almost half the population as voters and all parties are trying to woo them.”
Political analysts said, “The biggest issue for women is that they have got free things, but they want something more than this. Due to this, some women may vote for BJP in this Delhi election.”
“However, most of the women are still with the Aam Aadmi Party in This Delhi election.”
On this, the Analyst said, “The voter of Delhi sees Arvind Kejriwal and Narendra Modi from different perspectives. People want to vote for Kejriwal in the Delhi elections, while in the Lok Sabha elections, they want to vote for Narendra Modi.”
Analyst further said, “Arvind Kejriwal’s image has suffered some setbacks, especially due to the Sheeshmahal and liquor scams. But still there are three such sections which provide strength to the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi election.”
Analyst told, “Delhi has 13 percent Muslim population, who have no other option. There are about 17 percent Dalit voters, according to the CSDS survey, 69 percent of them voted for the Aam Aadmi Party in 2020. Also, the women’s vote bank is strong.”
“According to the CSDS survey, in 2020, 60 percent of women voted for the Aam Aadmi Party, while only 35 percent of women voted for the BJP.”
Analyst also said, “This time, even if there is a slight change in the women’s vote, then Dalit, Muslim and women voters together can ensure the victory of the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi election.
Is BJP missing something in This Delhi Election?
After losing the elections in Delhi for six consecutive times, BJP is entering the field with the intention of winning it for the seventh time.
Earlier BJP has faced defeat at the hands of Congress thrice and then Aam Aadmi Party did not let it take the winning lead.
In such a situation, the question arises whether BJP will be able to do something amazing this time in Delhi election?
On this, a political analyst says, “this election was a good opportunity for BJP to win. When Arvind Kejriwal was in jail, the party was completely scattered. But when he comes out of jail, he understands that the people of Delhi are unhappy with him.”
Then he resigned from the post of Chief Minister, left the Chief Minister’s bungalow and tried to gain moral high ground. After this, he continuously focused on public relations programs.”
Analyst says, “BJP cannot overcome Arvind Kejriwal until it sets its clear agenda within Delhi and forces the Aam Aadmi Party to react to it.
The Congress Party, which was once a strong force in Delhi politics, has not been able to open its account in the last two assembly elections.
Before the newly formed Aam Aadmi Party government came to power in 2013, Congress had ruled Delhi for fifteen consecutive years.
When the Congress was at its peak in Delhi, it had a vote share of up to 40 percent.
But in the 2020 Delhi elections, the Congress could get only 4.26 percent of the votes.
Analyst Also says, “The Congress party’s leaders in three states (Punjab, Delhi and Gujarat) convinced Rahul Gandhi that regional parties are eating into their vote share. In this situation, the Congress will have to fight an election battle against these parties to get back its votes.”
Analyst believes, “If this decision has been taken in Delhi, then the Congress should take a similar step in Bihar at the end of this year. Because in Bihar, regional parties are also sitting on the vote share of the Congress.”
Analyst says, “Rahul Gandhi will have to implement it in all those states, like it has been done in Delhi. But will this happen? the possibility is very low, because Rahul Gandhi cannot do this with RJD.”
Talking about the problem of Congress, Analyst said, “Congress is facing this challenge in every state, not just in Delhi. There is a lack of organization in Haryana, Bihar, Maharashtra or other states.”
He said, “In many states, there is no district president or block president for 15-15 years and Congress is going to contest elections among the people.”
“It is clear that Congress has a lot of pending work on the organization and the party is not trying to work on it seriously.
Muslim voters’ stance on the politics of ‘soft Hindutva’ in This Delhi Election?
A decade ago, Arvind Kejriwal emerged as an anti-corruption leader who was not afraid to name even the rich and powerful people.
For his supporters, he was a leader who preferred only honesty away from religion and caste.
But in recent times, it has been said about him that he has started doing the politics of ‘soft Hindutva’.
At the same time, it is being said that Muslim voters are unclear about the Aam Aadmi Party and the Congress. The question is what happened in the last decade that Arvind Kejriwal took the path of ‘soft Hindutva’?
On this, ANalyst says, “It is true that Arvind Kejriwal follows soft Hindutva and I think that Arvind Kejriwal also practices as much Hindutva politics as the Bharatiya Janata Party does.”
He said, “The Muslim vote will go to the party that defeats the BJP. Congress is trying to bring back the Muslim and Dalit vote bank.”
Analyst further said, “But the challenge before the Congress is how to reassure these sections.”
On this, political analysts say, “First of all, we have to understand what is the mentality of the Muslim voter and who is their biggest enemy. It is the Bharatiya Janata Party, because ever since the BJP government has been formed, difficulties in their lives have increased.”
“If you look at Delhi, can Congress defeat BJP? It doesn’t seem so. That’s why Muslim voters think of voting for the Aam Aadmi Party.”
“One thing Muslim voters understand very well is that the Aam Aadmi Party has many flaws, but it does not spread hatred against minorities”
Analyst also said, “Arvind Kejriwal tries to bring Hindu voters to his side by doing soft Hindutva.”
“Ever since Bharat Jodo Yatra has started, Congress Party and Rahul Gandhi have become the first choice of Muslims. However, if you ask any Muslim in Delhi, he will say that he wants to vote for Congress, but he also knows that Congress is not in a position to win at this time.”
The dilemma on the face of the CM and the role of RSS
BJP surprised everyone after winning the elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. This is not because they won all three states, but because they made people sit on the Chief Minister’s chair who were probably not in the race to become the Chief Minister.
On the one hand, after the formation of the Mahayuti government in Maharashtra, it was said that the RSS played an important role in this victory.
So In Such a Situation, Can The RSS Influence The Results Once Again?
Analyst says, “Many people are raising the question that if the court will not allow Arvind Kejriwal to sit on the Chief Minister’s post right now, then on what basis is he claiming to be the Chief Minister.”
Analyst gave his opinion on this, “Somewhere there is a sense of insecurity inside the top leadership of the BJP. They feel that if the election is fought through one face and that face becomes very big, then there can be problems in politics after Modi.”
Citing an example, Analyst said, “For example, the questions being raised about Yogi Adityanath in Uttar Pradesh are related to similar concerns.”
Analyst said, “In terms of organization, RSS has no answer. It is a very strong organization and everyone should learn from such an organization. But if organization was everything, then why did the Bharatiya Janata Party have to wait till 2014 to form the government on its own strength? Because at that time no one had such an organization.”
Analyst further said, “Narendra Modi created an emotional bond among the people, a belief that I am the leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party and I can change this country.”
“He created the belief that he can oust the Congress from power. Arvind Kejriwal is also doing the same thing, he also talks at the same level at least.”
“The RSS organization can increase the vote by a maximum of three percent, it cannot do more than that.”
Analyst said, “I always believe that discussion about the organization is important, but if the organization itself won the elections, then till date BJP would never have lost in Delhi.
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